Ann Epidemiol 24:532-537.
St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, ON, Canada
PURPOSE: We compared the John’s Hopkins’ Aggregated Diagnosis Groups (ADGs), which are derived using inpatient and outpatient records, with the hospital record-derived Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices for predicting outcomes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients.
METHODS: We used a validated algorithm to identify HIV-infected adults (n = 14,313) in Ontario, Canada, and randomly divided the sample into derivation and validation samples 100 times. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 1 year, and secondary outcomes included hospital admission and all-cause mortality within 1-2 years.
RESULTS: The ADG, Elixhauser, and Charlson methods had comparable discriminative performance for predicting 1-year mortality, with median c-statistics of 0.785, 0.767, and 0.788, respectively, across the 100 validation samples. All methods had lower predictive accuracy for all-cause mortality within 1-2 years. For hospital admission, the ADG method had greater discriminative performance than either the Elixhauser or Charlson methods, with median c-statistics of 0.727, 0.678, and 0.668, respectively. All models displayed poor calibration for each outcome.
CONCLUSIONS: In patients with HIV, the ADG, Charlson, and Elixhauser methods are comparable for predicting 1-year mortality. However, poor calibration limits the use of these methods for provider profiling and clinical application.
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